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Copyright (c) 2006
Shandler Enterprises ISSN# 1534-1542 Volume 6, No. 10 March 24, 2006 |
MARKET WATCHGranderson far ahead of Nook Logan in battle for Tigers' CF position... Back on February 8th, Market Watch analyst Andy Andres wrote, "skills predict [Curtis] Granderson likely will win [the] starting OF job in Motown." Granderson (CF/LF, DET) has been competing with Nook Logan (CF, DET). So far, it's a one-sided battle: Granderson is batting an amazing .395/.531/.895 (!) while Logan is batting just .188/.291/.188. Sp.Trn. 2006 AB R HR bb% ct% Eye ============ == == == === === ==== Granderson 38 12 5 19% 84% 1.50 Logan 48 9 0 11% 73% 0.46 The players' Spring Training BPIs are also lopsided in Granderson's favor. And even though Logan was supposed to have an advantage in speed, he has 6 SB compared to Granderson's 5 SB. Yes, these are small samples, but managers look at those pre-season AB to decide who makes the big league club and who starts at Triple-A. Based on what we've seen so far, it should be an easy decision. Zimmerman on target for 3B in WAS... Ryan Zimmerman (3B, WAS) has been penciled in as the starting 3B for the Nationals since the trade of Vinny Castilla in the off-season. Zimmerman has not been a disappointment this spring, hitting .317 with 3 HR's and 7 RBI's in 48 AB's. In talking about Zimmerman manager Frank Robinson has been quoted as seeing him as a potential 30+ HR hitter. Zimmerman, 21, has yet to demonstrate that kind of power, but he has not had much opportunity to do so, either. Year AB HR Avg bb% ct% Eye PX ==== === == === === === ==== === 2005* 233 7 288 5 88 0.43 119 *MLE's Zimmerman is projected to be an outstanding defensive 3Bman with a solid bat, but does need to work on a few things such as pitch recognition. He is likely to be someone you will want to target in the future, but for now he is likely to go through some struggles with so little minor league experience under his belt. If you have the ability to keep him for several years he may be worth targeting this year. Mussina follows spring gem with a stinker; ups and downs for 2006? Thirty-seven year-old Mike Mussina (RHP, NYY) followed a nice spring training game (5 IP, 8 K, 3 H, 1 R) with a poor one (4 IP, 10 R, 12 H). This may be a predictor of an up and down 2006, good starts followed by bad ones. Let's look at his game logs from the last few years: Year GS PQS SCORES ==== == ========== 2002 33 4 4 5 3 2 3 5 4 3 5 3 5 4 1 2 4 2 4 5 4 4 0 3 4 4 3 5 3 5 4 5 5 3 2003 31 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 4 4 2 4 4 3 0 5 4 4 3 5 2 3 5 3 3 5 5 3 4 3 2004 27 1 0 4 1 2 4 3 5 2 5 2 3 5 0 3 3 2 3 0 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 2005 30 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 5 3 5 0 1 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 0 4 4 5 0 0 5 0 Year PQS-DOM% PQS-DIS% ==== ======== ======== 2002 61% 6% 2003 65% 6% 2004 44% 19% 2005 47% 20% Looking at the above, you can see the patterns. The last two years are different than 2002-3, the inconsistency easily seen in the yearly PQS-DOM and PQS-DIS percentages. In addition, the string of seven consecutive DOM starts in 2004 and 8 consecutive DOM starts in 2005 show the recent streakiness of Mussina. Moreover, in 2002 and 2003, there were no consecutive PQS-DIS starts, where this has occurred three times in the past two years. Mussina's declining skills and statistics make it too risky to assume much of a comeback. Ross move creates catching logjam in Cincy...David Ross (C, CIN) was wearing out opponents' pitching this spring, hitting .529 with 3 HRs in 17 ABs. Going from San Diego to Cincinnati, Ross goes from one crowded catching situation to another. With the Reds, he'd have to beat out Jason LaRue (C, CIN) and Javier Valentin (C, CIN) for playing time. Player AB Avg HR bb% ct% Eye PX ================================================= LaRue 361 .260 14 10 72 0.41 145 Valentin 221 .281 14 12 83 0.81 141 Ross 125 .240 3 5 78 0.21 108 Despite comments from Reds management that "you can never have enough catching," it's that the club's latest addition lacks plate discipline and doesn't have the power of either LaRue's or Valentin. So unless the team decides to keep three catchers and/or experiments with LaRue or Valentin sharing first base duties, Ross shouldn't be a factor. Explanations of the statistical acronyms used in this report These analyses appears daily at BaseballHQ.com and subscribers get over five dozen of them every week! INSIGHTDr. HQ, Injury Analystby Rick WiltonWhen Johnny Damon hit the wall in Fenway Park last year and 'bruised' his shoulder, it was expected to clear up quickly. As it turned out, we never really got the whole story but it lingered with him the rest of the season. During the off-season, while the free agent dance between Boston and New York was going on, Damon was working on getting the shoulder healthy and strong. Now that he didn't play in the last two games in the WBC for the United States we get word the left shoulder is a little sore. A short-term thing. Nothing to worry about over the long haul, they say... Read on... LIBRARY
RON SHANDLER'S MASTER NOTESTWO END GAME CATCHERS WHO COULD HIT 20 HRS IN 2006 The teaser we've been using in our promotional material this off-season -- "Two End Game Catchers Who Could Hit 20 HRs in 2006" -- presents an intriguing question. Is there even such a thing? The answer to the question is not cut-and-dried. For one thing, what is the definition of "end game?" An end-gamer in a 15-team mixed league is different than an end-gamer in a 13-team NL-only league. Folks on a variety of message boards have tried to figure out these stealth backstops on their own, and lots of interesting names have been bandied about. For me, end-game means exactly what it says, and as such, the names would be different depending upon the league you participate in. The point of the exercise is not so much to name names, but to highlight the fact that we have the analytical tools at our disposal to answer such questions. To be honest, I did not have any specific names in mind when I wrote the ad copy, though I knew it would not be difficult to come up with viable candidates using Baseball HQ tools. And more important, the process would also allow us to identify end-game shortstops who could steal 25 bases, end-game relief pitchers who could save 30 games, or just about any similar speculation. The process is simple. We need to identify players with the requisite skills set who currently do not have the opportunity to put up those numbers. Then we look at the players who are blocking their path to playing time and identify those who are high risks. For our specific case study, we'd be looking with catchers with high Power Index (PX) levels playing behind front-liners with low Reliability scores. That exercise reveals five potential candidates and two more secondary candidates... seven second-string catchers who could back into unexpected HR output! Catcher PX Front-Liner Rel =========== === ============= === Mirabelli,D 122 Piazza,M 26 Closser,JD 112 Torrealba,Y 27 Snyder,C 122 Estrada,J 38 Laird,G 115 Barajas,R 48 Valentin,J 127 LaRue,J 54 Melhuse,A 125 Kendall,J 73 Fasano,S 122 Lieberthal,M 79 The final duo has limited opportunity because their front-liners are very reliable, but anyone can get hurt and those second-tier catchers do have the potential skill. Now you can go off and uncover your own sleepers. MORE OF RON SHANDLER'S INSIGHTS...
Ron's full column appears every Friday at BaseballHQ.com.
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