FROM THE
PERENNIAL
CHAMPIONS AT
|
A FREE E-ZINE
FROM THE PERENNIAL CHAMPIONS AT | |
|
Page 4 Finding relevance Berkeley's 17th Law: A great many problems do not have accurate answers, but do have approximate answers, from which sensible decisions can be made. Maybe I'm a bit exasperated by this obsession with prognosticating accuracy because my own projections system is more prone to stray from the norm — by design — and thus potentially fare worse in any comparative analysis. My system is not a computer that just spits out numbers. I don't spend my waking hours tinkering with algorithms so that I can minimize my mean squared errors. My computer model only spits out an objective baseline and then the process becomes hands-on and highly subjective. From the Projections Notes page at BaseballHQ.com: “Skills performance baselines are created for every player beginning each fall. The process starts as a 5-year statistical trend analysis and includes all relevant performance data, including major league equivalents. The output from this process is a first-pass projection. As an example, let's look at Pujols. After hitting 37, 34, 43, and 46 HRs, his baseline projection called for 42, which represented a normal regression to the mean. However, our flags pointed out consistent upward trends in contact rate, fly ball ratio, batting eye and a second half surge in his power index. Add in his alleged age (25) and a reliability rating of 94, and all signs pointed north for his power trend to continue. Our projection now calls for 50 HRs. Why 50? I believe it is reasonable to expect Pujols to maintain his second half PX level for a full six months, given the trends in his skills. For some people, it might take a moment to accept 50, but the more you look at it, the more it passes the eyeball test. This is a player with no true comparables in history. All we have is our eyeballs and a general idea of what makes sense. Fifty makes sense to me. The end result of this system is not just a set of inert numbers. As I mentioned earlier, I consider the commentary that accompanies the numbers to be just as vital a part of the “projection,” if not more so. Think of it this way... The numbers provide a foundation for our expectations, the “play-by-play,” if you will. The commentary, driven by all the BPIs, provides the “color.” Both, in tandem, create the complete picture. Admittedly, a system with subjective elements tends to give classic sabermetricians fits. But that's okay because, at the end of the day we're still dealing with... Now here's the kicker... In the end, my primary goal is not accuracy. My goal is to shape the draft day behavior of fantasy leaguers. For certain players with marked BPI levels or trends, I often publish projections that are not designed to reflect a “most likely case” scenario but rather present a “strong enough case to influence your decision- making.” There are reasons to stray beyond the comfort zone. For instance, sometimes, when my projection says $27, it is intended solely to make you say $22 when the bidding stops at $21 (assuming the context of normal market conditions). If I had published a projection of $23 or $24, that's not enough of a psychological push for you to take that last leap of faith. I need a set of numbers that screams at you: “These BPIs could be HUGE! His upside could be far greater than any projection system would reasonably predict! It's worth the risk—yes, SAY $22!” And I want you to make these decisions with a minimum of hesitation. That lack of hesitation comes from a trust I try to build between us, from sound analysis and a 19-year track record that has been shown to work. How can I play so loose with dollar values? Because they are entirely market-driven anyway. If you are convinced that Eric Chavez is worth $26 and land him for $21, you will have overpaid if the rest of the league sees him as no more than a $17 player. Even if he is really worth $35. So my goal is to get you into the mode of playing off that volatility with the knowledge of where your profit opportunities really lie. And that answers the question, "For any player, what is the one piece of information that is far more important than the most accurate projection?" That information is how the other owners in your league value that player. If you know that, and have a sense of a player's potential, it doesn't matter a whit how accurate your projections are. So our track record is not necessarily built on any given level of prognosticating accuracy. Our track record is built on a series of analytical tools and a decision-making process that has led to success in playing this game. And since your ultimate goal is to fare better in your fantasy competitions, I see this all as a justifiable means to an end. I'm not publishing deliberately inaccurate projections. I'm just taking a potential reality from an upper or lower decile, based on strong underlying indicators, and engaging in a bit of behavior modification. If you are offended by the psychological implications, I apologize. If you now consider me a sabermetric hack, I've been called worse. But the users of this information seem to be winning their leagues so I'll accept the baggage that comes along with it. It's all about winning. Reasonably accurate projections are important, but will only get you part of the way there. The rest is knowing what to do with the information, especially at the draft table. Even if you had a crystal ball and knew exactly what every player's statistics were going to be next year, you can still lose at this game. I believe your goal is to win. As such, you should not worry if my analysis says that David Ortiz is going to hit 39 HRs and the other prognosticator says 42. Even if his projection is powered by the latest shiny, new computer model, by next October 2, the difference between his and mine may be three unexpected gusts of wind. Baseball Variation of Harvard Law: Under the most rigorously observed conditions of skill, age, environment, statistical rules and other variables, a ballplayer will perform as he damn well pleases.
SHANDLER ENTERPRISES , P.O. Box 20303, Roanoke, VA 24018, 540-772-6315 |
